Bangladesh Delta Plan has prepared to release a report covering its “scenario development” approach with a workshop with the Bangladesh Planning Commission on 2 September, 2015.
Entitled “Scenario Development for Bangladesh Plan 2100,” this workshop was a releasing of the scenarios incorporated into the Delta Plan. The scenarios serve to not just predict one single future for the Bangladesh Delta, but an array of potential future circumstances — depending on environmental factors and national economy.
After a series of workshops with Bangladesh government agencies and countrywide water experts, beginning in early 2015, the upcoming scenario report has defined four broad scenarios influenced by 17 different components called “drivers.”
The four scenarios — productive, resilient, congestion, and stagnation — predict both optimistic and pessimistic outcomes, ranging from high economic growth and manageable water conditions, to low economic growth and extreme water conditions.
By accounting for the great uncertainties of the global market, human development, and climactic change, BDP can provide the Bangladesh government with a response for any possible outcome.
BDP researchers consider the scenario plan as a “living document.” Meaning that as new information becomes available and different environmental and economic factors arise, the scenarios can be refined and implemented accordingly – ideally every few years with newfound data.
In the most recent scenario workshop, government officials and water experts were placed in different scenario groups to discuss the best practices if a specific scenario came to fruition in the coming years.
With notes gathered and suggestions heeded, the final details of the scenarios are being updated as a framework for the final stages of Bangladesh Delta Plan. The way the scenarios appear today are modeled off scenario projects from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and previous Dutch delta scenario approaches.
BDP’s scenario approach recognizes that the future of the Bangladesh Delta is subject to larger factors at play; the global market and the unpredictability of climate change can bolster or betray Bangladesh — BDP is preparing for any outcome.
Stay tuned for a completed public report.
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